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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd