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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still