A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
